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Author Topic: CIES Observatory Rankings  (Read 5900 times)

Giolazio

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2016, 06:48:24 PM »

CIES have published a list of the 100 players with the highest transfer value in Europe's Top 5 leagues.

Felipe Anderson is in 44th place and is valued at 41.7 million euro. According to CIES, his value has gone up about 10 million in the last 6 months.

A player must be valued at 28.2 million to make the list - Candreva was in the top 100 six months ago, but not anymore, and Lucas Biglia isn't on the list despite being quote at a similar price in the media. Only Anderson makes the cut.

Basically, the CIES value our top players less than the media do. Their valuations are based on a formula derived from looking at a history of transfer fees paid, and in case you think it might be a bit lenient, perhaps worth pointing out that the formula puts Raheem Sterling at 89.9 million euro and Anthony Martial at 77.8 million euro.

Do you reckon clubs actually use this?
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Cathal

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #31 on: January 04, 2016, 07:24:20 PM »

CIES have published a list of the 100 players with the highest transfer value in Europe's Top 5 leagues.

Felipe Anderson is in 44th place and is valued at 41.7 million euro. According to CIES, his value has gone up about 10 million in the last 6 months.

A player must be valued at 28.2 million to make the list - Candreva was in the top 100 six months ago, but not anymore, and Lucas Biglia isn't on the list despite being quote at a similar price in the media. Only Anderson makes the cut.

Basically, the CIES value our top players less than the media do. Their valuations are based on a formula derived from looking at a history of transfer fees paid, and in case you think it might be a bit lenient, perhaps worth pointing out that the formula puts Raheem Sterling at 89.9 million euro and Anthony Martial at 77.8 million euro.

Do you reckon clubs actually use this?

I'd say clubs are aware of it, and I'd say a few use it.

Might sound very unprofessional, but a lot of players are being signed like this - agent recommends player x, club uses stats in Football Manager to 'scout' or research player x, then they go out and buy player x.

Why wouldn't a club use CIES' mathematical formula for transfer values? It is freely available and gives an indication as to whether player x could be a bargain.

So I'd say some clubs use it, for sure.
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Cathal

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #32 on: June 01, 2016, 11:31:27 AM »

CIES have published a list of the Top 100 players in Europe's Major 5 leagues from a transfer fee perspective. Bit wordy, but basically, if a player is sold, what CIES reckon the transfer fee would be.

One Lazio player on the list - Felipe Anderson at 34.8 million - that's the figure they'd expect him to be sold for if he was sold.

The lowest figure on the list was 29.4 million, so the likes of Biglia, Candreva, Keita etc. would be expected to fetch less if sold in the current market.
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Ed

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #33 on: June 01, 2016, 12:15:55 PM »

:ohnoo: To say that the values on that list seem ridiculous is an understatement! There are probably 15-20 players that would fetch anywhere close to those figures. Lots of these seem based on what clubs paid for the player and might want back rather than what anyone in their right mind (save China) would offer them. Some are just hilarious:

Sterling 72.8
Isco 60.4
Costa 49.6
Dier 48.2
Eriksen 46.6
Fabregas 45.7
Otamendi 44.9
Depay 43.5
Pedro 42.9
Giroud 40.9
Blind 39.8

And possibly the funniest of the lot:

Zaha 32.3... :razz:

Need I go on?! :twinkle:
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MAKI "I would like to say hello to you guys and I appreciate all you've been doing to me and I promise wherever I go I will always be available for you guys! Thanks, cheers!"

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Cathal

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #34 on: June 01, 2016, 12:24:51 PM »

:ohnoo: To say that the values on that list seem ridiculous is an understatement! There are probably 15-20 players that would fetch anywhere close to those figures. Lots of these seem based on what clubs paid for the player and might want back rather than what anyone in their right mind (save China) would offer them. Some are just hilarious

They are ridiculous, but probably not that far off the mark. It probably would take those sums of money to secure those players.

Which makes it all the more disheartening that we've only one player on the list, and that the sum is 15+ million down on what our DS claims to have rejected for him last summer.
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Cathal

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #35 on: June 03, 2016, 08:36:55 AM »

I put Candreva and Biglia through the CIES transfer value calculator. This takes into consideration a number of performance related details over the last couple of years and takes a while to do - I'm happy to do more players if there's interest in it. Just ask!

But this might surprise people.

Anotnio Candreva - expected transfer fee - 16.4 - 19.1 million
Lucas Biglia - expected transfer fee - 6.5 - 7.5 million
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Ridler

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #36 on: June 03, 2016, 10:24:23 AM »


Anotnio Candreva - expected transfer fee - 16.4 - 19.1 million
Lucas Biglia - expected transfer fee - 6.5 - 7.5 million

Fair enough on Candreva. Don't think Lotito would let him go for that price, but for a few millions more he'd probably be out the door.

Biglia however - I cannot fathom how we could possibly be worth less than what we paid Anderlecht for him.
Sure, he's a few years older and has been injured a few times, but he has proved himself in a way tougher league than Belgium and cemented himself in the Argentina NT. 7.5 million is, frankly, preposterous.

P.s I'm not accusing you here Cathal, I'm just feeling slightly butthurt cause I think that valuation is an insult to Biglia.
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Ed

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #37 on: June 03, 2016, 11:04:11 AM »

Candreva and Biglia would sell for more than Zaha or, as I somehow missed the first time, Jordan Ibe (which is just as funny!). As Rafa would say, that is a fact.

I wonder how little some of the Aston Villa donkeys are worth! You can currently buy Agbonlahor for a packet of pick and mix sweets and a shisha pipe! Lescott is available on a monthly contract with a simple large button phone...
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Amir

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #38 on: June 03, 2016, 11:11:36 AM »

The world of mercato operates in a very weird way to be honest. We occasionally remain speechless when some transfers take place.

For instance, Zaza and Gabiaddini are both more sough after in the market despite rarely playing than Candreva. This is just an example!

Wheres I could image Candreva being sold for 16-19 (+ some bonuses) no way in hell is Biglia worth only that much.
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Cathal

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Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
« Reply #39 on: June 03, 2016, 11:15:17 AM »

The CIES formula, as far as I know, is derived from actual transfer fees. What I'm saying is, it's not that they've come up with this formula and it's producing wild results - they have used transfer fees to try and find what they believe clubs are looking at, and create a formula for it.

There are many things taken into consideration, and one of the main reasons Biglia has such a low value is because his contract runs out in two years. Another factor is our poor season combined with Biglia's recent history of missing some games.

I'd imagine the players coming out with high valuations are ever-presents who have 4 or 5 years to run on their deals.

PS. I can't see Biglia going for 7.5 million, but because Lotito is Lazio's President. A player approaching 31 with two years left to run on his deal, playing in a mid-table side - I don't think 7.5 million is that far off. He might be worth more, but not sure anyone would pay much more.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2016, 11:18:04 AM by Cathal »
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