Lazioland Forum

La SS LAZIO => GENERAL DISCUSSION => Topic started by: Cathal on March 31, 2015, 08:44:00 AM

Title: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on March 31, 2015, 08:44:00 AM
The CIES observatory have analysed player performance in the big 5 leagues and find the following players to be among the top 15 players in the big 5 leagues in 2015.

Lucas Biglia (4th best midfielder)
Stefan de Vrij (joint 6th best centre-back)
Dusan Basta (9th best full-back)

Needless to say, there is one high-profile omission...
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Dakiller961 on March 31, 2015, 08:51:43 AM
Wow, just checked this ste. very interesting.

Thanks Cathal, did not know this existed !
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Dakiller961 on March 31, 2015, 08:55:40 AM
The CIES observatory have analysed player performance in the big 5 leagues and find the following players to be among the top 15 players in the big 5 leagues in 2015.

Lucas Biglia (4th best midfielder)
Stefan de Vrij (joint 6th best centre-back)
Dusan Basta (9th best full-back)

Needless to say, there is one high-profile omission...

It says at least 66% of minutes. I think with the injury FA had, he did not do 66% of total Lazio minutes since January 1st.
I might be wrong
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Rizmo on March 31, 2015, 09:09:08 AM
Interesting. But you must disagree with the inclusion of De Vrij and Biglia? I do think that the partnership with Mauricio has made De Vrij better but Biglia has been a beast all season long.

It took him a full season to acclimatise and now he's developed into one of the top midfielders not only in the league but in europe as well. Biglia was one of my dream transfers and was so happy when it went through, but then he had many here on the forum against him but now he's proving them all wrong.


Felipe's not inluded as it seems the analysis doesn't see goals and assists as key factors.

Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on March 31, 2015, 09:14:08 AM
I actually think Felipe Anderson probably falls short of the minutes required, if there is a 66% threshold.

I wouldn't disagree with the inclusions at all. Few teams would have had as easy schedule and few teams have been playing as well and so on. And the three that made the list have been playing well recently.

I think people like it when our players gain some recognition, so this is nice.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: LazioKosovo on March 31, 2015, 10:38:20 AM
One Serb sport commentator once said: Statistics are like bikini, they really do not hide nor do they show.
Personally I am a statistics person but only if you collect and process right data. Oh yes, you need to read them properly. By the way, the trio De Vrij, Biglia and Anderson are backbone of Lazio. 
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: blue-white on March 31, 2015, 11:29:42 AM
One Serb sport commentator once said: Statistics are like bikini, they really do not hide nor do they show.

Perfect!!! :bravo: :bravo: :bravo:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on March 31, 2015, 11:51:06 AM
That's a pretty great way of putting it.

Point I'd make is that stats should be used to support an argument rather than create one.

The figures tell us that Biglia, de Vrij and Basta have played well in the last 3 months in comparison to their peers. Sure, we can use that to back-up an argument in favour of those three, but I'd like to see this data over an entire season or even better, their careers.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on March 31, 2015, 01:02:03 PM
The CIES observatory have analysed player performance in the big 5 leagues and find the following players to be among the top 15 players in the big 5 leagues in 2015.

Lucas Biglia (4th best midfielder)
Stefan de Vrij (joint 6th best centre-back)
Dusan Basta (9th best full-back)

Needless to say, there is one high-profile omission...

The fact Biglia & De Vrij are in the list does not surprise me, altough i did not expect Biglia that high.  However Basta as 9th best FB is a surprise to me, not that he did bad not at all, but still.

Good for the club, these stats ....  :bravo:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: rivo on April 14, 2015, 11:58:45 AM
Hahaha
You know my response to this study guys.

I am disappointed.
There must be some flaws in the method they use.
How many people does this research institue has? Where does the data come from?
66% of minutes? First, what minute do they mean? Second, number-wise, is 66 something based on research or just their own number to exclude Felipe Anderson?
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: drazvan on April 14, 2015, 12:53:45 PM
Hahaha
You know my response to this study guys.

I am disappointed.
There must be some flaws in the method they use.
How many people does this research institue has? Where does the data come from?
66% of minutes? First, what minute do they mean? Second, number-wise, is 66 something based on research or just their own number to exclude Felipe Anderson?

i actually do not find this strange. Felipe Anderson was good only in the past 3 months. And he is in a tougher competition than De Vrij or Biglia. He needs to fight names like Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, etc. We can fool ourselves and say that Felipe is better than all of them, but truth being said he still needs to prove some consistency and skills over a longer period of time.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Rizmo on April 14, 2015, 01:05:42 PM
This study was only for 2015 and not all season so I also find it strange Felipe didnt make the list.

But 66% is 2/3 of the game so a normal number to make the study.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: drazvan on April 14, 2015, 01:24:21 PM
I am more shocked to see that Cristiano Ronaldo did not make it...I mean he has like 15 goals and 10 assists in 2015...you would think that he will make it on the list in front of an injured Robben or a not so in shape Diego Costa...and Eder is on that list...hmmm...
this is not a very objective statistic in my opinion.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Rizmo on April 14, 2015, 01:49:13 PM
Thats what I said before. This study must exclude goals and assists and take everything else into consideration. Strange yes...
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: rivo on April 14, 2015, 02:39:08 PM
Drazvan, dont you get that this study is using data from 3 months back? And Felipe has been wonderful since three months that he became a nominee for ESPN FC players of March if i remember correctly.

Rizmo, what exactly 2/3 of games does mean? Can someone here explain to me more what 66% of minutes mean? Thanks. Cathal since you seem to understand it, please I need your explanation about it. Study has biases, and I believe one of them in this study, which is clearly smelled, is human bias. 
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: drazvan on April 14, 2015, 03:06:04 PM
Drazvan, dont you get that this study is using data from 3 months back? And Felipe has been wonderful since three months that he became a nominee for ESPN FC players of March if i remember correctly.

Rizmo, what exactly 2/3 of games does mean? Can someone here explain to me more what 66% of minutes mean? Thanks. Cathal since you seem to understand it, please I need your explanation about it. Study has biases, and I believe one of them in this study, which is clearly smelled, is human bias.

This study is using data from 2015. we had 14 games in serie a in 2015 and felipe missed 4 and in 2 played only 45 min. so approx 9 games out of 14. That means 64%. So less than 66%. I think this is what Cathal means.

Now Ronaldo played in 15 out of 17 games for Real and scored 13 goals and gave 5 assists. I find it really weird that he is not on the list.

But like somebody else said, the study does not seem to look at goals/assists but other more subjective criteria. All in all: who cares? it seems only Cavanda checks this kind of studies...maybe he will ask them why is he not included in the list, he is afterall the best right wing in the world.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: rivo on April 14, 2015, 03:08:47 PM
I quote this from CIES.
#startofquote
Key performance indicators
Shooting: ability to exploit goal opportunities through accurate shooting
Chance creation: ability to putting teammates in a favourable position to score
Take on: ability to create advantageous situations by successfully challenging opponents
Distribution: ability to keep a hold on the game through efficient passing
Recovery: ability to minimise opponents’ chances through proficient interception work
Rigour: ability to minimise opponents’ chances through robust duelling
#endofquote

And if you see the pdf file, theres a simple graphic on the bottom left that tells us all these key performance Indicators (KPI) are somehow calculated to get the pitch performance (PP) in numbers. Well this is totally a tough work to first get the individual KPI, and they need a big community to track all players in europe and put them in numbers. And how they calculate a defender's PP, attacking midfielder? Using no weighting? Like AM has to get more weight on Chance Creation. And then they also say "To limit bias, only footballers having played at least 66% of match time since the start of the season are included in the study". This isnt limiting the bias!  This is the researcher's limit, if I understand it correctly, thus throwing away shining player like Felipe Anderson.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: rivo on April 14, 2015, 03:13:47 PM
Drazvan, how on earth can a player in injured state be calculated? Its non sense. To limit the bias, exclude missed match(es). Simple.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on April 14, 2015, 03:25:17 PM
The CIES Observatory analysed the best players in Europe over a 3-month period by looking at the following categories: shooting, chance creation, take on, rigour, recovery and distribution. Each category is weighted according to the importance of the skills. Goals would obviously be a part of the shooting criteria and assists part of chance creation. Whether you agree with the criteria or not, that's up to you guys.

In the first 3 months of 2015, Biglia, de Vrij and Basta were among the best players in their positions according to this study.

The study only counts players who have played 66% of minutes during that period. As Felipe Anderson was injured for much of that 3-month period, he would not have been included in the findings of the study.

The CIES have many statistics which might be of interest. For example, Lazio have picked up 1.79 points when de Vrij has played but only 1.44 points when Klose played. Juventus and Lazio signed less players in the summer than all other Serie A clubs (7), yet we're the top 2 teams in the league. Lazio have more foreigners in their team than any other Serie A club (82.1%). Foreign players stay at Lazio longer than at 17 other Serie A sides on average. Lazio are among the oldest squads in Italy (average of 28.2) which in turn is among the oldest leagues in Europe.

Their statistics are very useful. And in this case, I don't think they've manipulated the data to exclude Felipe Anderson and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: drazvan on April 14, 2015, 04:02:24 PM
Drazvan, how on earth can a player in injured state be calculated? Its non sense. To limit the bias, exclude missed match(es). Simple.

it seems like you dont understand what i say. what i try to say is that THEY consider only percentages of games played this year. injured, suspended, etc - all same. how many minutes a player played compared to the total number of games. this to avoid that Cavanda is the best right wing in the world after playing a game.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: phantomm1976 on April 16, 2015, 10:56:16 AM
 Biglia in his position deserves this,
 Same for DV,
 Basta-considering that he is finishing his duty without mistakes and have a brilliant matches like vs Napoli also is not to be surprised.
 I m not a statistic fan but I m glad that our players have the respect.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on May 05, 2015, 02:10:41 PM
According to CIES, Felipe Anderson has been the best U23 forward in Europe's top leagues this season, narrowly beating Neymar.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: ilsemprelaziale on May 05, 2015, 02:28:14 PM
According to CIES, Felipe Anderson has been the best U23 forward in Europe's top leagues this season, narrowly beating Neymar.

 :supsmile:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: drazvan on May 05, 2015, 02:46:54 PM
I thought it is not for the whole season but for the month March.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on May 05, 2015, 02:53:07 PM
I thought it is not for the whole season but for the month March.

If it is, then they should write that somewhere  :razz:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on May 18, 2015, 03:02:26 PM
CIES Observatory have posted some new rankings for the season.

Basta - 10th best right-back
Biglia - 10th best defensive midfielder
Candreva - 13th best attacking midfielder
Felipe Anderson - 10th best forward

They ranked Lazio as the 12th most dangerous team, 16th in terms of 'grip on the game', 7th in terms of duelling ability, and 46th on set plays.

Remember, these rankings only taking into account players and clubs in the top flight of the 5 big leagues.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Amir on May 19, 2015, 05:05:30 PM
I think we should ignore this CIES because according to them Phil Jones is best central defender in Europe
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on May 19, 2015, 05:15:38 PM
I think we should ignore this CIES because according to them Phil Jones is best central defender in Europe

Best U23 defender in Europe. They have Thiago Silva as the best overall defender in Europe.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 02, 2016, 12:35:48 PM
According to the CIES, Dusan Basta was the 5th best right-back in the major European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1) during 2015 while Lucas Biglia was the 4th best defensive-midfielder.

Also, Felipe Anderson was in their 'dream team' of U23 players.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 04, 2016, 06:15:33 PM
CIES have published a list of the 100 players with the highest transfer value in Europe's Top 5 leagues.

Felipe Anderson is in 44th place and is valued at 41.7 million euro. According to CIES, his value has gone up about 10 million in the last 6 months.

A player must be valued at 28.2 million to make the list - Candreva was in the top 100 six months ago, but not anymore, and Lucas Biglia isn't on the list despite being quote at a similar price in the media. Only Anderson makes the cut.

Basically, the CIES value our top players less than the media do. Their valuations are based on a formula derived from looking at a history of transfer fees paid, and in case you think it might be a bit lenient, perhaps worth pointing out that the formula puts Raheem Sterling at 89.9 million euro and Anthony Martial at 77.8 million euro.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Giolazio on January 04, 2016, 06:48:24 PM
CIES have published a list of the 100 players with the highest transfer value in Europe's Top 5 leagues.

Felipe Anderson is in 44th place and is valued at 41.7 million euro. According to CIES, his value has gone up about 10 million in the last 6 months.

A player must be valued at 28.2 million to make the list - Candreva was in the top 100 six months ago, but not anymore, and Lucas Biglia isn't on the list despite being quote at a similar price in the media. Only Anderson makes the cut.

Basically, the CIES value our top players less than the media do. Their valuations are based on a formula derived from looking at a history of transfer fees paid, and in case you think it might be a bit lenient, perhaps worth pointing out that the formula puts Raheem Sterling at 89.9 million euro and Anthony Martial at 77.8 million euro.

Do you reckon clubs actually use this?
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 04, 2016, 07:24:20 PM
CIES have published a list of the 100 players with the highest transfer value in Europe's Top 5 leagues.

Felipe Anderson is in 44th place and is valued at 41.7 million euro. According to CIES, his value has gone up about 10 million in the last 6 months.

A player must be valued at 28.2 million to make the list - Candreva was in the top 100 six months ago, but not anymore, and Lucas Biglia isn't on the list despite being quote at a similar price in the media. Only Anderson makes the cut.

Basically, the CIES value our top players less than the media do. Their valuations are based on a formula derived from looking at a history of transfer fees paid, and in case you think it might be a bit lenient, perhaps worth pointing out that the formula puts Raheem Sterling at 89.9 million euro and Anthony Martial at 77.8 million euro.

Do you reckon clubs actually use this?

I'd say clubs are aware of it, and I'd say a few use it.

Might sound very unprofessional, but a lot of players are being signed like this - agent recommends player x, club uses stats in Football Manager to 'scout' or research player x, then they go out and buy player x.

Why wouldn't a club use CIES' mathematical formula for transfer values? It is freely available and gives an indication as to whether player x could be a bargain.

So I'd say some clubs use it, for sure.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 01, 2016, 11:31:27 AM
CIES have published a list of the Top 100 players in Europe's Major 5 leagues from a transfer fee perspective. Bit wordy, but basically, if a player is sold, what CIES reckon the transfer fee would be.

One Lazio player on the list - Felipe Anderson at 34.8 million - that's the figure they'd expect him to be sold for if he was sold.

The lowest figure on the list was 29.4 million, so the likes of Biglia, Candreva, Keita etc. would be expected to fetch less if sold in the current market.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Ed on June 01, 2016, 12:15:55 PM
:ohnoo: To say that the values on that list seem ridiculous is an understatement! There are probably 15-20 players that would fetch anywhere close to those figures. Lots of these seem based on what clubs paid for the player and might want back rather than what anyone in their right mind (save China) would offer them. Some are just hilarious:

Sterling 72.8
Isco 60.4
Costa 49.6
Dier 48.2
Eriksen 46.6
Fabregas 45.7
Otamendi 44.9
Depay 43.5
Pedro 42.9
Giroud 40.9
Blind 39.8

And possibly the funniest of the lot:

Zaha 32.3... :razz:

Need I go on?! :twinkle:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 01, 2016, 12:24:51 PM
:ohnoo: To say that the values on that list seem ridiculous is an understatement! There are probably 15-20 players that would fetch anywhere close to those figures. Lots of these seem based on what clubs paid for the player and might want back rather than what anyone in their right mind (save China) would offer them. Some are just hilarious

They are ridiculous, but probably not that far off the mark. It probably would take those sums of money to secure those players.

Which makes it all the more disheartening that we've only one player on the list, and that the sum is 15+ million down on what our DS claims to have rejected for him last summer.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 03, 2016, 08:36:55 AM
I put Candreva and Biglia through the CIES transfer value calculator. This takes into consideration a number of performance related details over the last couple of years and takes a while to do - I'm happy to do more players if there's interest in it. Just ask!

But this might surprise people.

Anotnio Candreva - expected transfer fee - 16.4 - 19.1 million
Lucas Biglia - expected transfer fee - 6.5 - 7.5 million
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Ridler on June 03, 2016, 10:24:23 AM

Anotnio Candreva - expected transfer fee - 16.4 - 19.1 million
Lucas Biglia - expected transfer fee - 6.5 - 7.5 million

Fair enough on Candreva. Don't think Lotito would let him go for that price, but for a few millions more he'd probably be out the door.

Biglia however - I cannot fathom how we could possibly be worth less than what we paid Anderlecht for him.
Sure, he's a few years older and has been injured a few times, but he has proved himself in a way tougher league than Belgium and cemented himself in the Argentina NT. 7.5 million is, frankly, preposterous.

P.s I'm not accusing you here Cathal, I'm just feeling slightly butthurt cause I think that valuation is an insult to Biglia.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Ed on June 03, 2016, 11:04:11 AM
Candreva and Biglia would sell for more than Zaha or, as I somehow missed the first time, Jordan Ibe (which is just as funny!). As Rafa would say, that is a fact.

I wonder how little some of the Aston Villa donkeys are worth! You can currently buy Agbonlahor for a packet of pick and mix sweets and a shisha pipe! Lescott is available on a monthly contract with a simple large button phone...
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Amir on June 03, 2016, 11:11:36 AM
The world of mercato operates in a very weird way to be honest. We occasionally remain speechless when some transfers take place.

For instance, Zaza and Gabiaddini are both more sough after in the market despite rarely playing than Candreva. This is just an example!

Wheres I could image Candreva being sold for 16-19 (+ some bonuses) no way in hell is Biglia worth only that much.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 03, 2016, 11:15:17 AM
The CIES formula, as far as I know, is derived from actual transfer fees. What I'm saying is, it's not that they've come up with this formula and it's producing wild results - they have used transfer fees to try and find what they believe clubs are looking at, and create a formula for it.

There are many things taken into consideration, and one of the main reasons Biglia has such a low value is because his contract runs out in two years. Another factor is our poor season combined with Biglia's recent history of missing some games.

I'd imagine the players coming out with high valuations are ever-presents who have 4 or 5 years to run on their deals.

PS. I can't see Biglia going for 7.5 million, but because Lotito is Lazio's President. A player approaching 31 with two years left to run on his deal, playing in a mid-table side - I don't think 7.5 million is that far off. He might be worth more, but not sure anyone would pay much more.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on June 03, 2016, 11:27:42 AM
Not really surprising at all. Their way to calculate the player values is quite questionable. Would be interested to see Keita's value though.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 03, 2016, 11:52:24 AM
Would be interested to see Keita's value though.

10.1 - 11.8 million.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Rizmo on June 03, 2016, 12:28:18 PM
Would be interested to see Keita's value though.

10.1 - 11.8 million.

De Vrij?  :rolley:

We need to extend Keitaa contract asap btw.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 03, 2016, 12:49:05 PM
De Vrij?  :rolley:

De Vrij came out at 4.6 - 5.3 million. Being out for almost a year is probably skewing that one, but then again, being out for a year and having 2 years to run on his contract, maybe that's as high as a potential bidder would go at the minute.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Crni Đorđe on June 03, 2016, 01:05:16 PM
10 million would be quite generous offer for Biglia.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on June 03, 2016, 06:00:53 PM
How about Dybala? What would his price be?
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 03, 2016, 06:52:03 PM
How about Dybala? What would his price be?

Thankfully, I don't have to calculate that as it was in their report - Dybala's transfer fee value is 104.5 million.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on June 03, 2016, 07:38:59 PM
How about Dybala? What would his price be?

Thankfully, I don't have to calculate that as it was in their report - Dybala's transfer fee value is 104.5 million.

But that was my point. We both know the calculator won't work. If you would use the calculator, Dybala would something like 30 million? And that's why I would want to know the difference. If if gives 7 million for Biglia, in reality it's much more. Like it would be in Dybala's case.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 03, 2016, 08:16:23 PM
But that was my point. We both know the calculator won't work. If you would use the calculator, Dybala would something like 30 million? And that's why I would want to know the difference. If if gives 7 million for Biglia, in reality it's much more. Like it would be in Dybala's case.

Except the calculator does work  :razz:

Dybala comes out of the calculator with a transfer fee value of 105 - 122.1 million. My guess is they took the minimum value for their publication, and that mine is slightly higher as I am having to round figures up and down, and they can be that bit more accurate.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on June 03, 2016, 08:31:17 PM
Interesting. It works better than expected then. I mean the calculator can't know in which teams the players play. For example Dybala playing for Juventus is 100 M, but Dybala playing for Chievo wouldn't be 100 M.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Rizmo on June 03, 2016, 10:32:36 PM
Interesting. It works better than expected then. I mean the calculator can't know in which teams the players play. For example Dybala playing for Juventus is 100 M, but Dybala playing for Chievo wouldn't be 100 M.

Are you high?  :razz:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: lazioserbia on June 04, 2016, 01:44:24 AM
Interesting. It works better than expected then. I mean the calculator can't know in which teams the players play. For example Dybala playing for Juventus is 100 M, but Dybala playing for Chievo wouldn't be 100 M.

Are you high?  :razz:

If he is, that makes two of us  :beer:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on June 04, 2016, 10:59:55 AM
Interesting. It works better than expected then. I mean the calculator can't know in which teams the players play. For example Dybala playing for Juventus is 100 M, but Dybala playing for Chievo wouldn't be 100 M.

Are you high?  :razz:

How come? It's logic. You need certain qualities (not saying Dybala is an example of it but in general) to be a successful striker at a small team. Also it's a lot less stressful to play at a team like Chievo than for example at Juventus. Also if a big teams come to offer big money, Chievo will accept the highest offer. Why would Barcelona pay 100 M euros to Chievo when they could get him for 40 M euros? I'm sure Borussia is regretting signing Immobile even though he was young and won the Capocannoniere. Now none of the big teams want him because he has failed at two big teams already (and never even got a chance in Juventus even though they owned him so it's basically 3 big failed teams). So yes, the team you play for matters a lot for your price.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Rizmo on June 04, 2016, 04:41:57 PM
Interesting. It works better than expected then. I mean the calculator can't know in which teams the players play. For example Dybala playing for Juventus is 100 M, but Dybala playing for Chievo wouldn't be 100 M.

Are you high?  :razz:

How come? It's logic. You need certain qualities (not saying Dybala is an example of it but in general) to be a successful striker at a small team. Also it's a lot less stressful to play at a team like Chievo than for example at Juventus. Also if a big teams come to offer big money, Chievo will accept the highest offer. Why would Barcelona pay 100 M euros to Chievo when they could get him for 40 M euros? I'm sure Borussia is regretting signing Immobile even though he was young and won the Capocannoniere. Now none of the big teams want him because he has failed at two big teams already (and never even got a chance in Juventus even though they owned him so it's basically 3 big failed teams). So yes, the team you play for matters a lot for your price.

I just assume that the people who made the CIES Rankings knows what team the players play for, and without knowing for sure about the calculator I also assume you have to put some info about the player. Club, contract, age etc...

So what you were on about Dybala and Chievo, no one knows  :supsmile:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on June 04, 2016, 04:48:03 PM
I just assume that the people who made the CIES Rankings knows what team the players play for, and without knowing for sure about the calculator I also assume you have to put some info about the player. Club, contract, age etc...

So what you were on about Dybala and Chievo, no one knows  :supsmile:

You don't put in the club, but you do enter the league and put in the average points per league game of the club. So while the calculator doesn't know Dybala is at Juventus, the calculator does know he spent last season playing for a team which scored 91 points in Serie A.

So Cnon only really has a point here if he thinks there'd be a difference in Dybala's price if he was at Juventus or at another club that scored 91 points in a Serie A season.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on June 04, 2016, 06:22:36 PM
I actually checked the calculator quickly and noticed that it DOESN'T ask the club and that's why I asked Cathal to calculate Dybala's price. I thought it would use an average value of all clubs, but I forgot the point things. So basically it does know the club because the best clubs score most points and therefore the clubs which scores most points will own the most expensive players. So yeah, I should have checked the calculator better before asking Dybala's price.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on July 04, 2016, 03:57:15 PM
CIES have launched a new tool which is going to make a nice alternative or supplement to Transfermarkt, WhoScored etc. Simply type in a player and it gives you a load of interesting things, some of which you won't find elsewhere.

I've done it with Marco Parolo here. (http://www.football-observatory.com/-Ratings-eng)
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 11, 2017, 02:07:18 PM
CIES predicting Lazio will finish 4th in Serie A with a total of 67 points based on the performance data of all 20 teams in Serie A. According to them, we will be 10 points off 3rd and will only secure Europe by 2 points.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on January 11, 2017, 09:55:39 PM
CIES predicting Lazio will finish 4th in Serie A with a total of 67 points based on the performance data of all 20 teams in Serie A. According to them, we will be 10 points off 3rd and will only secure Europe by 2 points.

This is a very positive estimate imo.  If so, this would be a great season.  I can't see chance of finishing higher by letting Napoli or Merda behind us so 4th spot is the highest achievable.  But competition will be very stiff with Milan & Inter very closeby.  Don't think Atalanta will keep it up.

Serie A is a very tough league to reach the CL directly if you aren't a rich club.  Just missing it with Pioli against Leverkusen will keep on stinging for a couple of years.  That extra CL spot sadly isn't available yet for Italy, it would have been interesting if this was already on the books this season.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: phantomm1976 on January 12, 2017, 10:14:46 AM
 Interesting ranking....
 I would be interesting for example if we buy some quality players....could we eliminate those -10points
 We need a win in a big match - we suffer for this.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 16, 2017, 08:17:15 AM
CIES have released their top 100 players in terms of transfer value. Only one Lazio player on this list - Felipe Anderson - valued at 38.1 million by CIES.

Here's a list of Lazio player values for anyone who is interested:

Felipe Anderson - 38.1
Ciro Immobile - 25.5
Wallace - 20.2
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic - 18.0
Keita Balde Diao - 17.0
Lucas Biglia - 15.7
Marco Parolo - 14.7
Wesley Hoedt - 8.9
Luis Alberto - 8.6
Bastos - 6.5
Senad Lulic - 6.2
Stefan de Vrij - 6.2
Ricardo Kishna - 5.8
Jordan Lukaku - 5.3
Moritz Leitner - 4.1
Alessandro Murgia - 2.8
Cristiano Lombardi - 2.7
Federico Marchetti - 2.7
Patric - 2.6
Thomas Strakosha - 2.6
Filip Djordjevic - 2.5
Stefan Radu - 2.2
Ivan Vargic - 2.0
Dusan Basta - 1.8
Mamadou Tounkara - 1.8
Joseph Minala - 1.6
Ravel Morrison - 1.5
Vinicius Freitas - 1.0
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: moody on January 16, 2017, 08:42:45 AM
A bit overrated for most players I think, Wallace, Parolo, HOEDT, Kishna, Leitner, Djordjevic(I doubt he can fetch 1m), and the younger players who never makes an appearance.

Imagine if we sell all these players - that's already 60m and the only ones that would actually make a noticeable difference is Wallace and Parolo.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: phantomm1976 on January 16, 2017, 10:01:01 AM
 Wallace 20 m, Hoedt 8.9m, Alberto 8.6 m !!!!!!
 De Vrij 6.2 m !!!!!
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on January 16, 2017, 03:11:30 PM
Looking quite decent but Wallace, Hoedt a bit too high and Keita, de Vrij too low.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 16, 2017, 03:42:33 PM
Cant see much wrong with the valuations, aside from de Vrij, whose valuation I understand.

Put it this way - Hoedt almost has the same experience in Serie A as de Vrij and is much younger. Why do people seem to think Hoedt is worth about 3.5 and de Vrij about 35?

People compare John Stones to de Vrij and I think it's off because Stones is much younger. But compare Hoedt to Stones, and I think Hoedt is definitely worth 8-10 million in today's market.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: moody on January 16, 2017, 04:14:11 PM
Go go go let's sell him this window then
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Nass on January 16, 2017, 04:42:03 PM
Cant see much wrong with the valuations, aside from de Vrij, whose valuation I understand.

Well if Wallace is worth 20 then how on earth could Sergej be anything less than 20 himself, to not even talk about Keita. How do you explain that for example?

Would be intresting to have an insight in how they produce their conclusions on CIES, is it National squad status? number of appearances? Thinking most of Biglia and Parolo, those numbers suggest these players still have over a 15 millions Euros worth left in their legs despite age and form. Also wouldn't put Murgia over Lombardi quite yet, Lulic could be as important for a game just like Parolo, still the latter is valued at double? Is Lulic less important to Bosna than Parolo to Italy?

All in all, there are some strange numbers on that list, how do you argue with that?
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Stefano6 on January 16, 2017, 04:49:20 PM
Wallace was already highly valued before joining us, having played 2 seasons in the Champions League with Monaco.

Sergej is\was a good prospect, did well with the Serbia U21 team, but not much else. Even opinion on him here is divided, apart from dinochester who loves him, a lot of others see him as very limited.
If he continues to develop and put in good performances then his value will rise, hes still young.

Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Nass on January 16, 2017, 05:04:23 PM
Yeah I hear you bro, still it's not fair, it's so typical society out there to value people from their CV instead of what they can do
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Crni Đorđe on January 16, 2017, 05:19:51 PM
Employers doesn't know how good are you at work before he hires you - that's why you won't earn much quid as young trainee. CV and your school marks will be decisive to command higher salary.

That's why football players between 28 and 33 years almost always command higher salaries in comparision to younger players, even when veterans see only portion of action on field.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Nass on January 16, 2017, 05:35:55 PM
Employers doesn't know how good are you at work before he hires you - that's why you won't earn much quid as young trainee. CV and your school marks will be decisive to command higher salary.

Depends on work, area of work and employer ofcourse. There are so many living examples out there that could be totally opposite, like if you're an employer that want to find the best suitable personal assistant for your disabled contact, if someone comes waving with a CV it might be seen as a sign of weakness, for instance. As it comes to the world of football it is way too complicated with way too many things to consider. If it were that simple and only down to a CV in a football club, Criseteg, who has played for Inter and has CL games on his CV would not be on the list of lowest salaries in Serie A.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Agent Orange on January 18, 2017, 05:17:36 PM
Stefan de Vrij - 6.2.. - now is our chance to sign him for atleast 10 more years.. Lotito can use this list and show it to de Vrij's agent  :supsmile:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on January 23, 2017, 11:20:08 AM
Another interesting bit of info from the CIES today. They've went and calculated the cost of players in a team versus their estimated value and compiled a table of 98 teams in the big 5 leagues in terms of, basically, how much value for money they got from their players.

So according to the CIES, Lazio have spent 108 million on this team, but their worth is 237 million. This means Lazio's squad is worth 129 million more than what we paid and it puts Lazio in 19th place out of 98 teams. Napoli, 1927 and Juventus are above us.

It's a shame they didn't calculate this as a percentage as that would give us more of an idea of how well Tare is doing in the market relative to other clubs. But looking through the table quickly, doesn't seem as though anyone is doing a much better job than Tare as DS in terms of getting value for money.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Sile on January 23, 2017, 11:33:14 AM
So our entire team cost roughly the amount of Higuain. Makes sense.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on May 15, 2017, 01:24:08 PM
CIES ranks Berisha as the joint-5th beat goalkeeper in Europe this season.

Someone tell LoTare.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Amir on May 17, 2017, 09:07:04 AM
CIES ranks Berisha as the joint-5th beat goalkeeper in Europe this season.

Someone tell LoTare.

No wonder, he needed confidence which he could not find at Lazio. The same happened with De Bruyne with Chelsea.

Some players perform better when they are not under stress of having to fight for their starting position.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Skenderbeu on May 17, 2017, 05:09:01 PM
Berisha deserves it no doubt. I just don't think he will return.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on May 17, 2017, 05:34:07 PM
Berisha deserves it no doubt. I just don't think he will return.

Think so to, he probably doesn't want to.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Amir on May 18, 2017, 08:55:32 AM
Berisha deserves it no doubt. I just don't think he will return.

Think so to, he probably doesn't want to.

He would pick Lazio over Atalanta any day, but he needs reassurances that he is a starter.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on July 12, 2017, 09:13:43 AM
CIES updated their transfer values. I'll post the full list at a later date, but interestingly, their valuation of Marušić is exactly what we reportedly paid for him - 6.5 million.

So it might be interesting to note the following:

Keita - 18 million
Biglia - 12 million
de Vrij - 11.8 million
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cnon on July 12, 2017, 11:14:22 AM
Keita - 18 million

Out of curiosity, I just checked Luis Muriel's value and it was 15.4 million on CIES. Shouldn't that alone prove that Muriel would have been a decent substitute for Keita. Or that their system isn't that accurate. Or most likely both.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Giolazio on July 12, 2017, 12:00:01 PM
Keita - 18 million

Out of curiosity, I just checked Luis Muriel's value and it was 15.4 million on CIES. Shouldn't that alone prove that Muriel would have been a decent substitute for Keita. Or that their system isn't that accurate. Or most likely both.

Muriel is far from a bad player, and I wouldn't mind having him at Lazio. It's just that the media were saying it would take close to, if not over 20mil which is too much. Not just too much for Muriel, but too much for a second striker. 
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on July 12, 2017, 09:25:56 PM
CIES updated their transfer values. I'll post the full list at a later date, but interestingly, their valuation of Marušić is exactly what we reportedly paid for him - 6.5 million.

So it might be interesting to note the following:

Keita - 18 million
Biglia - 12 million
de Vrij - 11.8 million

Sergej 25mill
Felipe 38mill
Ciro 53mill
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: valdanito on July 12, 2017, 10:58:15 PM
Contract has influence the price.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on July 12, 2017, 11:12:51 PM
Contract has influence the price.

Surely, Keita could otherwise not be under 30mill.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on October 17, 2017, 04:59:51 PM
Ciro's current CIES rating is 72.8 mill !

Not that i want to cash in, far from that.  Just proud of our topclass striker.   :bravo:
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on December 05, 2017, 05:11:49 AM
For the interested member in marketvalue.
Some CIES rating have gone up significantly recently and some also by a small amount.
For the following players :

Marusic : 13.2 mill
De Vrij : 17.5 mill
Bastos : 7.6 mill
Luis Alberto : 15.4 mill
Milinkovic : 46.8 mill
Immobile : 84.3 mill
Lukaku : 8 mill
Strakosha : 18.6 mill

Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: moody on December 05, 2017, 07:53:48 AM
For the interested member in marketvalue.
Some CIES rating have gone up significantly recently and some also by a small amount.
For the following players :

Marusic : 13.2 mill
De Vrij : 17.5 mill
Bastos : 7.6 mill
Luis Alberto : 15.4 mill
Milinkovic : 46.8 mill
Immobile : 84.3 mill
Lukaku : 8 mill
Strakosha : 18.6 mill

Massively overrated Marusic and massively underrated Luis Alberto.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: blue-white on December 05, 2017, 10:22:40 AM
Massively overrated Marusic and massively underrated Luis Alberto.

don't agree here a bit. Yes, Marusic a bit too much. But Alberto ... he had a good start, but in my opinion, he is overrated here in this forum and on social media too.

He is important on standard situations, but when we speak about the open play, i prefer a fit FA behind Ciro.

In this list - Sergej should be higher.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on December 05, 2017, 10:41:29 AM
Have to agree on Luis Alberto, can't see clubs willing to pay more than 15 million for a player who was basically worthless six months ago and has had a few good games since.

I think this notion that Luis Alberto has broken into the Spanish national team is seen as something which shows he is appreciated outside Rome, but it's worth noting that the current Spain manager has worked with Spanish youth teams and therefore Luis Alberto and gave Luis Alberto 15 minutes at a time when he's handing out opportunities to many players.

If Luis Alberto establishes himself as a regular and goes to the World Cup, I could see him fetching maybe 30 million in this market. But the way he's playing right now, he'll do well to keep his place over Anderson and Nani for the rest of the season, and it would be difficult to justify his selection in a 23-man Spanish World Cup squad.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: drazvan on December 05, 2017, 11:34:18 AM
I dont think Marusic is over-rated. To be honest, there are not so many strong fast right wingers out there at this age.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: moody on December 05, 2017, 03:52:25 PM
Luis and Sergej both fetched 3 goals in Serie A and Luis has way more assists. They have different roles in the team but I don't really see Sergej worth 3 times more than Luis, at least on contribution wise I consider them on similar terms. Luis was only given chances this season and he proved he is consistent and no fluke, although true, that clubs won't be knocking at our door this mercato for him so yes in some way you can say he is 15m or whatever right at this point, but a player of his ability and age could fetch 30m by the end of the season unless he drops considerably.

For Marusic, he was bought for 6.5m and other than the 2 goals and some good teamwork, his defense and overall skills would not make him a star in the future so hard to justify 15m (I could be wrong since Hoedt was sold for more). Anyway I don't really see his market value rising 10m for these few months nor the future, and he isn't even that young.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Hadi Van Der Vaart on December 05, 2017, 04:03:30 PM
You cant compare Luis n Sergej based on their goals n assists. Luis Alberto was nobody before this season, had Keita stay, Anderson stay fit or even Nani adapts well, I doubt he will get playing mins like today. I also cant say he is consistent this season.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: moody on December 05, 2017, 04:21:37 PM
Yes he was nobody before this season but welcome to Dec 2017 when he is currently somebody in the Spanish team now. He might be overshadowed by others if he is forced to play regista and can't get the chances he deserves, but bringing up Nani up is really a poor argument for he didn't accomplish anything this season except for a goal against a bottom team. Not to mention apart from goals and asissts which came from various games instead of one or two, Luis Alberto is also the top player in Lazio on whoscored. If he's not consistent then no one else is either.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Hadi Van Der Vaart on December 05, 2017, 04:36:39 PM
......., but bringing up Nani up is really a poor argument for he didn't accomplish anything this season except for a goal against a bottom team.

I said if
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on December 05, 2017, 05:37:00 PM
Yes he was nobody before this season but welcome to Dec 2017 when he is currently somebody in the Spanish team now.

No, he's not. He's literally had '15 minutes of fame' as of today. He's the Spanish equivalent of Bryan Cristante, only older.

It's the same sort of logic that was used for Biglia all those years ago. If he's playing for Argentina, if our team was built around him, if he's our captain, he must be good, he must be worth 25-30 million. But that logic doesn't look sound anymore.

Luis and Sergej both fetched 3 goals in Serie A and Luis has way more assists.

Luis Alberto should have more assists, being the playmaker of this team who is also taking set-pieces. You noted yourself that they have different roles, so what's the grounds for the comparison? For example, how is it any different to arguing that de Vrij is worth more than Leiva because the Dutchman has made more clearances?

SMS holds much more value because he's been established at this level for a longer period of time and he's younger, but most importantly of all, he seems to be able to play three different positions at a relatively high level whereas Luis Alberto hasn't shown he can play anywhere other than behind the striker. Not great as a winger, not succeeding as a deep-lying playmaker.

I like Luis Alberto and I can see him being worth much more than 15 million, but he's rather limited in what he brings to a team and his CV is far from spectacular.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: moody on December 05, 2017, 06:13:44 PM
Yes he was nobody before this season but welcome to Dec 2017 when he is currently somebody in the Spanish team now.

No, he's not. He's literally had '15 minutes of fame' as of today. He's the Spanish equivalent of Bryan Cristante, only older.

It's the same sort of logic that was used for Biglia all those years ago. If he's playing for Argentina, if our team was built around him, if he's our captain, he must be good, he must be worth 25-30 million. But that logic doesn't look sound anymore.

Luis and Sergej both fetched 3 goals in Serie A and Luis has way more assists.

Luis Alberto should have more assists, being the playmaker of this team who is also taking set-pieces. You noted yourself that they have different roles, so what's the grounds for the comparison? For example, how is it any different to arguing that de Vrij is worth more than Leiva because the Dutchman has made more clearances?

SMS holds much more value because he's been established at this level for a longer period of time and he's younger, but most importantly of all, he seems to be able to play three different positions at a relatively high level whereas Luis Alberto hasn't shown he can play anywhere other than behind the striker. Not great as a winger, not succeeding as a deep-lying playmaker.

I like Luis Alberto and I can see him being worth much more than 15 million, but he's rather limited in what he brings to a team and his CV is far from spectacular.

Sergej only had 2 matches for his national team and why does that matter? I also don't think versatility is  greatly affecting valuation, as if Immobile is worthing less when he can't play anywhere other than striker. And to be fair FA has not really played attacking midfield for a long long time, previously there was Hernanes and then he went to the wings when we don't have a true attacking midfield. FA is also unproven at that position and people are already saying he is better based on few pre-season matches.

For the assists, LA has 6 and SMS has 1 as at whoscored, so different roles or whatever, that proves LA is doing a good job at his position, and for SMS who does a good job for his position, 3 times difference is too much.

Good that you can also see his worth, and to be honest, CV are for those who cannot judge talent and have to rely on inconclusive description to evaluate. That has always been the source of disastrous hires in the various companies I've worked in.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Cathal on December 05, 2017, 06:43:39 PM
Sergej only had 2 matches for his national team and why does that matter? I also don't think versatility is  greatly affecting valuation, as if Immobile is worthing less when he can't play anywhere other than striker. And to be fair FA has not really played attacking midfield for a long long time, previously there was Hernanes and then he went to the wings when we don't have a true attacking midfield. FA is also unproven at that position and people are already saying he is better based on few pre-season matches.

For the assists, LA has 6 and SMS has 1 as at whoscored, so different roles or whatever, that proves LA is doing a good job at his position, and for SMS who does a good job for his position, 3 times difference is too much.

Good that you can also see his worth, and to be honest, CV are for those who cannot judge talent and have to rely on inconclusive description to evaluate. That has always been the source of disastrous hires in the various companies I've worked in.

Are you talking only about CIES' valuations or your own opinion on how much you think players should be worth? I am aware of how CIES come to their valuations, but I've got my own ideas on how players should be valued.

I think a player being in a national team and playing games - which they take into consideration - isn't something that should be used to evaluate a player. Firstly, the opposition can vary in quality which can make it difficult to evaluate a performance. Secondly - as was the case with Biglia - you can break into a national team because there's simply a lack of players with a certain passport in a particular position. And finally, it can all get a bit political. Now, CIES put a lot of emphasis on this in their valuations because they've seem to have found some correlation between price and performance in the national team, but the correlation could simply be that national team players tend to be good and therefore cost a lot. It might be something that is rarely taking into consideration at management level, consciously or otherwise.

I think versatility should contribute and probably does contribute to a player's value but it's not something that is ever really brought up. For me, it's an indicator of talent. You're suggesting Immobile isn't worth less because he can only play as a striker, but do you think Immobile would be at Lazio if he could also play on the wing, like Messi, CR7, Neymar, Mbappé, Griezmann, Suarez, Dybala, Kane, Aguero, Sanchez, Morata and all these all other very expensive players? There's a reason out-and-out strikers such as Higuain, Icardi and Immobile end up plying their trade in Italy.

CIES' valuations hinge largely on what a player has done in their career to date (the CV) and Luis Alberto's career so far has been rather modest while for a 22 year-old, SMS has an impressive track record. And I agree with you that too much emphasis is placed on this within the football world. But Luis Alberto's talent and recent performances, in my opinion, is not enough to value him much higher than the 15 million CIES does.
Title: Re: CIES Observatory Rankings
Post by: Evesto on December 05, 2017, 07:30:46 PM
About Marusic, i think the CIES value is very logical.  He plays a high amount of time, puts in loads of miles  and is dependable.  The value will only get higher. 

Also logical on Luis Alberto.  Good at passing around and making the trough pass but limited in other areas.  Also just been playing on a higher level since a couple of months.  That arguement could be used on Marusic as well but in his case it also matters wich role he fills.  Wingers who do the entire flank and can still run after 90min and more, and are reasonably dependable on a good level will certainly always hold value.  Wich is also the reason why Lukaku already doubled in value and it's not by being flawless.

Ciro's high number is moslty due to his goalscoring record currently but in lesser days that will drop very quick, Sergej is lower now but he will only become more valuable normally.